Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 13.541010 15.473121 17.567815 20.005525 22.762527 25.782016 29.337759
2024-10-20 10.463027 12.998201 15.966695 19.691628 24.233154 29.582493 36.353492
2024-10-27 8.489881 11.133444 14.386421 18.670334 24.149338 30.906930 39.857936
2024-11-03 7.591701 10.434490 14.086233 19.099719 25.780419 34.350370 46.149019
2024-11-10 6.909134 9.890931 13.866175 19.522991 27.330913 37.688690 52.425309
2024-11-17 6.141466 9.129884 13.253077 19.317403 27.962502 39.788253 57.125386
2024-11-24 5.452375 8.394747 12.585746 18.940947 28.274399 41.406817 61.195614
2024-12-01 4.980282 7.920631 12.233635 18.960262 29.112653 43.770471 66.418235
2024-12-08 4.649292 7.621077 12.100950 19.272368 30.372887 46.785328 72.735640
2024-12-15 4.316824 7.283739 11.874552 19.408426 31.353245 49.416678 78.607173
2024-12-22 3.955025 6.863414 11.479019 19.237814 31.827411 51.283500 83.390095
2024-12-29 3.711316 6.612841 11.328218 19.435101 32.877093 54.074733 89.743400
2025-01-05 3.559350 6.510089 11.419343 20.048959 34.665445 58.177310 98.502636
2025-01-12 3.272845 6.148898 11.050373 19.864047 35.119836 60.160817 103.949789
2025-01-19 2.868764 5.540145 10.206304 18.793603 33.989990 59.451055 104.859633
2025-01-26 2.747416 5.435097 10.231759 19.239338 35.488959 63.204115 113.482484
2025-02-02 2.631953 5.329880 10.246272 19.660958 36.963394 66.985448 122.349619
2025-02-09 2.437803 5.056538 9.931585 19.455485 37.293324 68.790193 127.850528
2025-02-16 2.238601 4.755296 9.540631 19.075988 37.272574 69.961435 132.271024
2025-02-23 2.106716 4.576915 9.368498 19.095593 37.987007 72.476587 139.235765
2025-03-02 2.019699 4.482533 9.351029 19.409761 39.272003 76.090260 148.394386
2025-03-09 1.918920 4.350470 9.248472 19.546758 40.219424 79.122084 156.619469
2025-03-16 1.793212 4.154158 9.001464 19.374985 40.547300 80.999902 162.751938